RCEP的“轮辐”效应研究——基于多轮驱动的视角

Research on the "Spoke" Effect of RCEP: from the Perspective of Multiple Axle Drive

通过分析RCEP贸易地位及产业情况,运用GTAP9.0数据库,探讨中日为双轮轴、中日韩为三轮轴及中日韩澳为多轮轴等情形时,RCEP框架下自贸区网络的宏观经济及产业变化。研究表明:宏观经济方面,以中日为轮轴的RCEP自贸区网络是最优选择,能够提升区域内部整体经济实力,可以较好地利用贸易创造效应以优化成员经济体的贸易结构,增加进出口贸易额,改善区域贸易条件,并显著提升福利水平;产业产出方面,无论哪种情形,均能够通过产业间的互补性优势实现成员经济体的贸易利益。此外,中日韩等国可以通过RCEP的多轮轴效应实现产业结构的转型,且在基础设施方面能够开展广泛合作。

Based on an analysis of RCEP’s trade status and industrial situation and by using GTAP 9.0 database, this study explores the macro-economy and industrial changes of free trade area(FTA) network within the framework of RCEP with China and Japan as double-axle, with China, Japan and Korea as three-axle and with China, Japan, Korea and Australia as multi-axle respectively. The results show that the RCEP FTA network with China and Japan as its axle is the best choice in macro-economy, which can enhance the overall economic strength within the region, make better use of the trade creation effect to optimize the trade structure of the member’s economies, increase the volume of import and export trade, improve regional trade conditions, and significantly improve the welfare level;and that in terms of industrial output, the trade benefits of the members’ economies can be achieved through complementary advantages among industries under any kind of situation. In addition, China, Japan and South Korea can realize the transformation of industrial structure through the multiple axle effect of RCEP and cooperate extensively in infrastructure.