冲突对抗抑或和平合作?——气候变化背景下的北极安全问题探析

Confliction,Confrontation or Cooperation? ——Research on the Security Issues in the Arctic under the Background of Climate Change

北极气候变化的影响比地球上任何地方都更明显,这为北极资源开采创造了条件。“北极五国”可以划分为两大阵营,即俄罗斯阵营与北约阵营,但这两大集团不会为争夺北极资源和划分北冰洋大陆架而发生冲突对抗。首先,开发北极资源属于资金密集型和技术密集型产业,因而需要北极国家通力合作。其次,联合国海洋法公约和北极理事会作为重要的北极制度框架能够有效调节北极邻国间的矛盾和对抗。第三,北极军事存在是为民事服务的,主要是为北极救援并为防止北极冲突而未雨绸缪。第四,虽然乌克兰危机使俄罗斯失去了北极西方国家的信任,但是俄罗斯的北极合作发展战略并未发生实质性改变。气候变化为开发北极资源带来了重要的机遇,北极安全仍以和平合作为主题。未来北极安全问题最重要的影响因素是新行为体的出现,即格陵兰脱离丹麦而独立并成为新的北极国家。

The influence of the climate change in the Arctic is more apparent than anywhere else,which will generates the conditions for the exploitation of resources there.Actually,the Arctic Five are categorised into two blocs,Russia belonging to one while the four NATO countries the other.Nevertheless,the two blocs will not come into conflict or confrontation.First,the exploitation of the Arctic resources requires close cooperation between the countries around the Arctic and those beyond because of its capital and technological intensiveness.Secondly,the conflict and confrontation can be effectively moderated in the framework of Arctic Council and United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.Thirdly,the military existence in the Arctic mainly serves the civil service,especially in the rescue and precaution of conflicts.Fourthly,the peaceful cooperation between Russia and the westerncountries was not fundamentally changed,although Ukraine crisis degraded the trust of western countries upon Russia.In a word,the climate change generates an important opportunity for the exploitation of Arctic resources,and“peaceful”cooperationis still the theme in this region.The prospective security situation in the Arctic will be significantly influenced by the new rising actor in the future.That is to say,the Greenland declares its independence from Denmark and becomes a new Arctic country.