城市抢人大战的方案:公共支出吸引户籍人口流入

A Feasible Plan for Urban People’s Robbery War:Public Expenditure Attracts Resident Registration Population

2017年以来先后有35个城市开展“抢人”方案,但是如何实现户籍人口流入,成为各省发展的重要难题。针对以上问题,文章在理论上对生产性公共支出吸引户籍人口流动的机制进行了推导,得出生产性公共支出对户籍人口的吸引呈非线性组合关系。在此基础上借助门槛回归,利用中国省份数据,对这种非线性组合关系进行检验,结果表明,在人均财政收入作为门槛变量时,生产性公共支出对户籍净迁移率存在影响,这种影响符合非线性折凹组合关系。据此提出城市“抢人大战”取胜的方案是相机抉择地选择公共支出的水平。

Since 2017,35 cities have carried out the"robbery"program,but how to achieve the inflow of registered population has become an important problem for the development of each province.This paper theoretically deduces the mechanism of productive public expenditure attracting the flow of registered population,and concludes that the attraction of productive public expenditure to registered population has a concave relationship.On this basis,this paper uses threshold regression and Chinese provincial data to test the relationship.The test results show that when the per capita fiscal revenue is the threshold variable,the productive public expenditure has an impact on the net migration rate of household registration,which is in line with the non-linear combination of depressed and depressed relations.Therefore,this paper puts forward that the plan to win the"People's War"in cities is to improve the level of public expenditure.