贸易约束、不确定性与中国农产品出口效率

Trade Constraints,Uncertainty and Agricultural Export Efficiency of China

采用异质性随机前沿分析方法,对农产品贸易非效率部分设定为截断型半正态分布,探讨了存在贸易约束时的中国农产品出口效率。结果表明,识别贸易约束因素后,中国农产品出口效率均值为0.519,低于最优前沿水平;贸易约束对五种农产品影响估计系数不同;物流基础设施质量的提升显著降低了加工农产品和粮油产品贸易约束,同时也增加了其贸易不确定性;货物运输及时性的提高显著降低了纺织原料贸易约束;海关效率、物流基础设施质量提升显著降低了各类农产品出口的贸易约束。以此,提出着力改善物流基础设施质量、海关通关效率、货物运输及时性等建议,为决策部门提供参考。

By heterogeneous stochastic frontier analysis method and set of trade inefficiency as the truncated semi-normal distribution,this paper uses export mixed panel data of 5 classifications of agricultural products between 2007 and 2016,and estimates the impact of trade constraints on China agricultural export.The results show as below.After identifying trade constraint factors,the average value of export efficiency of China agricultural products is 0.5187,which is lower than the optimal frontier efficiency level.This indicates that a great potential of export for China agricultural products do exist.Trade constraints have different influencing coefficients on 5 kinds of agricultural products.For processed agricultural products and grain and oil,improvement on quality of logistics infrastructure significantly reduces trade constraints,but also makes trade uncertainty increases.For textile raw materials,improvement of cargo transportation and timeliness significantly makes trade constraints weakened.The efficiency of customs clearance,quality of logistics infrastructure and timeliness of freight transport can significantly reduce the trade restrictions on agricultural exports,and the improvement of customs efficiency is more significant to reduce trade restrictions.Some suggestions are put forward from the aspects of quality of logistics infrastructure,the efficiency of customs clearance,and the timeliness of goods transportation,so as to provide reference for decision-making departments.