人力资本测算及对经济增长的实证研究——基于第六次全国人口普查数据的分析

Construction of China’s Human Capital and its Impact on Economic Growth Based on the analysis of the sixth national census data?

人力资本对经济增长具有重要意义,本文重新构建中国的人口年龄结构与教育数据,并在此基础上对中国经济现状和未来做了分析与预测。结果显示20~59岁人口更适合作为中国的劳动年龄人口,根据该标准中国的劳动年龄绝对人数始终处于增长阶段,但人口抚养比于2011年达到最低点;中国近30年的受教育状况得到了显著的改善,劳动年龄人口的平均受教育年限从1982年的5.37年上升至2015年的10.14年;中国经济增长最主要的贡献来自物质资本的积累,其次是教育,劳动力人数对于经济增长的贡献最弱;中国2010年以来经济降速的主要原因是投资速度的放缓和全要素生产率的下滑。

Human capital is of great significance to economic growth, this paper constructs the age structure and educational data of China. It also analyzes and predicts the present and future situation of China’s economy based on these data. The results showed that the population aged 20~59 are more suitable for the Chinese working age population. According this standard, China’s absolute number is always in the growth stage, but the dependency ratio of population in 2011 reached its lowest point.Chinese education level has been greatly improved, the labor age population’s average years of schooling from 5.37 years in 1982 up to 10.14 years in 2015. The main contribution of Chinese economic growth comes from the accumulation of physical capital, followed by education;the number of labor’s contribution is the smallest. Since 2010, economic slowdown of China mainly resulted from its investment slowdown and a decline in total factor productivity.