麦卡勒姆规则与中国的货币政策操作实践

The McCallum Rule and China’s Monetary Policy Practice

文章基于我国货币政策以基础货币和存款准备金率为主要操作工具的现实以及我国产出和通胀的波动特征,利用货币交易方程推导出适合我国情形的麦卡勒姆规则;并进一步结合SVAR模型研究我国货币政策对产出和通胀冲击的响应轨迹以及两个目标的相对重要性问题。在2006年1月至2019年4月的月度数据基础上进行实证研究,结果表明,麦卡勒姆规则能够很好地刻画我国的货币政策实践;然而与麦卡勒姆规则和泰勒规则所拟合的美国货币政策规则不同,我国货币政策规则的最终目标并非维持"固定的"产出或通胀目标,而是通过逆向调节来"熨平"宏观经济波动;并且,我国的货币政策具有明显的"促增长"偏好,产出冲击造成的政策影响是通胀冲击的2倍左右。

Based on the fact that the basic currency and deposit reserve ratio are the main operating tools of China’s monetary policy,as well as the volatility characteristics of China’s output and inflation,this paper deduced the McCallum rule suitable for China’s situation by using the Equation of Exchange.Furthermore,the SVAR model is combined to study the response of China’s monetary policy to output and inflation shocks,and the relative importance of the two goals.Based on monthly data from January 2006 to April 2019,the research results show that McCallum rules can well describe China’s monetary policy practice.However,unlike the monetary policy rules of the United States fitted by McCallum(1993)and Taylor(1993),the ultimate goal of China’s monetary policy is to"iron out"macroeconomic fluctuations by retroregulation rather than maintain a fixed output or inflation target.Moreover,China’s monetary policy has an obvious preference of"promoting growth",and the policy impact caused by output shock is about twice that of inflation shock.