中国水产品出口二元边际作用机制分析

Analysis on the dual marginal mechanism of China’s aquatic products export

二元边际是评估水产品贸易增长模式的重要指标,但同时也对贸易的增长形成了反向因果关系。本文通过整理影响水产品出口增长的特征因素,并将水产品二元边际与这些因素建立联系,根据2000-2016中国对主要21个水产品贸易国的出口数据,利用PVAR模型检验了二元边际对水产品出口增长的影响,研究结果显示:数量边际对我国水产品出口额增长率的影响为负,即数量边际带来的出口增长是边际递减的,这意味着仅靠数量边际无法实现水产品出口持续稳定的增长。应从产品质量和附加价值入手,改变我国水产品出口结构。

Dual Margin is an important indicator to evaluate the growth pattern of aquatic products trade,while it also forms a reverse causal relationship to the growth of trade.By scanning the characteristic factors that affect the growth of aquatic products exports,this paper describes the relationship between the binary margin of aquatic products and these factors.According to the export data of China to 21 major aquatic products trading countries from 2000 to 2016,this paper uses PVAR model to test the influence of dual marginal on export growth of aquatic products.The results show that the effect of quantity marginal to the growth rate of aquatic product export volume is negative,that is,the export growth brought by quantity marginal is marginal decreasing.In other words,aquatic exports cannot achieve sustained and steady growth only depend on quantity marginal.The export structure of aquatic products in China should be changed from the perspective of product quality and added value.