利用树木年轮资料重建石河子地区168a来的5-8月降水量

The 168 Years Reconstruction of May-August Precipitation from Tree-Ring Data in Shihezi Region

据相关普查,天山北坡玛纳斯河山区的板房沟天山云杉树轮宽度标准化年表与石河子地区5~8月降水相关显著,相关系数为0.656(P<0.0001)。基于该年表重建玛纳斯河流域168a来的5~8月降水量,解释方差达43.0%。经统计参数检验和独立历史气候记载验证,表明168a的降水重建值具有较好的可信性。168a来的石河子地区5~8月降水量大体经历了6个偏湿和6个偏干阶段,最湿润年为1988年,降水比长期平均值偏多71.7%,最干旱年为1945年,比多年平均值偏少42.7%,最长偏湿期出现在1843~1857年,而最长偏干期位于1908~1924年。功率谱分析指出重建降水存在4.0和8.0年的变化准周期。石河子地区5~8月降水变化可能与ENSO具有一定的联系。

According to correlation census, the standarded chronology of tree-tree width from Tianshan spruce of Banfanggou in the Manas River mountainous area on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains was significantly correlated with the May-August precipitation in the Shihezi region. The single correlation coefficient was 0.656(P<0.0001). Based on the chronology, A 168 a reconstrution of May-August precipitation was performd for the Manas River basin and the explained variance was 45.3 %. The statistical parameter test and independent historical climate record verification showed that the 168-year precipitation reconstruction had good credibility. The May-August precipitation generally experienced 6 partial wet and 6 partial dry periods in the Shihezi region over past 168 years. The wettest-year occured in 1988, the precipitation was 71.7% more than the long-term average, the dryest year appeared in 1945, 42.7% less than the long-term average, the longest wet period appeared during 1843~1857, and the longest dry period occured from 1908 to 1924. Power spectrum analysis of the reconstructed precipitation showed remarkable four and eight year cycles for the past 168 years. The May-August precipitation variation possibly related to El Niňo-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) in Shihezi region.