政策工具如何影响中国耕地保护效果

How does policy tools affect the effects of China’s cultivated land protection?

不同的政策工具类型与结构将形成不同的耕地保护政策安排与行为约束,直接影响耕地保护政策目标实现程度和政策实施效果。本文将耕地保护涉及的政策工具划分为命令控制、经济激励和宣传引导三类,在设计出政策工具影响耕地保护效果的理论框架与研究假设后,以中国2001-2016年时序数据为基础,利用向量自回归模型实证揭示了不同类型政策工具对中国耕地保护效果的影响方向及贡献程度。结果表明:①命令控制工具、经济激励工具和宣传引导工具均与中国耕地保护效果之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系。②命令控制工具、宣传引导工具与中国耕地保护效果之间存在单向因果关系,它们是中国耕地保护效果变化的格兰杰原因,但是反过来均不成立,经济激励工具则与中国耕地保护效果之间存在双向因果关系。③中国耕地保护效果在很大程度上是受自身冲击的影响,表现出依赖自身惯性的变化特征,但是这种贡献率随着滞后期数的增加而逐渐降低,由第1期的100%变化至第10期的41. 30%。④命令控制工具、经济激励工具和宣传引导工具在整个分析期内均对中国耕地保护效果提升有积极作用,且从方差分解结果来看,三类政策工具对耕地保护效果的贡献率在滞后10期时都表现出不同幅度的上升趋势,其中经济激励工具的贡献率最高,其次是命令控制工具,宣传引导工具的贡献率最小。未来不仅要根据耕地保护面临的新形势进行政策工具创新,同时也要注重完善政策工具的内部结构,充分发挥不同类型政策工具的作用与功能,实现合力最大化。

Different types and structures of policy tools will form different policy arrangements and behavioral constraints of cultivated land protection,which directly affect the achievement of policy objectives and the effectiveness of policy implementation of cultivated land protection. This study divided the policy tools involved in cultivated land protection into three categories: command and control,economic incentives and publicity guidance,and empirical revealed the influence direction and degree of different policy tools on the effects of China’s cultivated land protection after designing the theoretical framework and research hypothesis. Method of Vector AutoRegression Model and the series data of China from 2001 to 2016 were used in this study. The result showed that: ①There is a longterm stable equilibrium relationship between command and control tool,economic incentive tool,publicity guidance tool and the effects of cultivated land protection in China. ②There is a one-way causal relationship between command and control tool,publicity guidance tool and the effects of cultivated land protection in China. They is the Granger cause of the effects of China ’s cultivated land protection,but the reverse is not true. And there is a two-way causal relationship between economic incentive tool and the effects of China’s cultivated land protection. ③The effects of China’s cultivated land protection are largely affected by its own shock,which presents the characteristics of depending on its inertia. The contribution rate gradually decreased with the increase of the number of lag periods,from 100% of the first period to 41. 30% of the 10 th issue. ④Throughout the analysis period,command and control tool,economic incentive tool and publicity guidance tool have positive effects on the improvement of the effects of China’s cultivated land protection. As can be seen from the results of variance decomposition,the contribution rate of various policy tools to the effects of cultivated land protection shows an upward trend,and the contribution rate of economic incentive tool is the highest,followed by the command and control tool and publicity guidance tool. In the future,we must innovate the policy tools based on the new situation the cultivated land protection faced. At the same time,we must pay attention to improving the internal structure of policy tools,and giving full play to the roles and functions of different types of policy tools and maximize the effects of cultivated land protection.