水资源利用与经济增长脱钩机制、模型及应用研究

Research on the mechanism,model and application of decoupling between water resources utilization and economic growth

水资源是经济增长不可或缺资源,生态文明总体方案中要求区域发展不能超出水资源承载力的要求。随着经济社会的发展,水资源与经济增长的脱钩现象普遍存在。这种现象赋予了区域水资源承载力新的内涵。经济增长与水资源利用脱钩机制和模型的研究对于符合水资源承载力的区域发展有着重要的意义。首先机制研究中,经济增长与水资源利用的脱钩机制可以分为两条线,一条是产业内部生产过程的纵向线;另一条是宏观经济层面的产业间和区域间的横向线。前者的脱钩机制来自于各个环节效率的提升。后者脱钩机制来自于产业结构调整和高耗水生产环节向外疏解。纵向线脱钩效应分为关键用水部分、其他资源投入部分以及其他生产部分;横向线脱钩效应分为结构效应和外部效应。其次,在模型研究中,本文开发了蒸汽机概念模型并推导出脱钩效应内部三个子效应:真实节水效应、资源配置效应和结构调整与疏解效应。再次,在概念模型的基础上,通过改进基于投入产出的结构分解分析模型,开发出区域脱钩效应模型。最后,以北京市为例进行应用研究。根据测算,北京真实节水效应在2010-2012年到达瓶颈期。资源配置效应稳定在50%左右。结构调整和疏解效应在加入WTO和全球金融危机两个时间点为反向效应点,其他时段都有利于脱钩。近年来调结构、区域协同发展对于水资源利用与经济增长脱钩有着重大意义。

Water resources are indispensable to economic growth. The Overall Plan of Ecological Civilization requires that regional development should not exceed the water resources carrying capacity. However,with the development of economy and society,the decoupling phenomenon between water resources utilization and economic growth is widespread. This phenomenon gives a new meaning to regional water resources carrying capacity. The researches on the mechanisms and models of decoupling between economic growth and water resources utilization are of great significance to the development of regional water resources carrying capacity. Firstly,according to the research,the decoupling mechanism between economic growth and water resources utilization can be divided into two aspects. One is the vertical aspect which are the production processes within the industries,while the other is the horizontal aspect which is the process among industries. The decoupling mechanism of the former comes from the improvement of the efficiency. The latter one comes from the adjustment of industrial structure and import of high-water-consume commodities. Decoupling effect of vertical aspect is able to be divided into key water use part,other resources input part and other production part,while that of horizontal aspect is able to be divided into structural effect and external effect. Secondly,on the basis of mechanism research,this paper develops the conceptual model of’steam engine’and deduces three sub-effects of decoupling effect: real water saving effect,resource allocation effect and structure adjustment and decoupling effect. Thirdly,on the basis of the conceptual model,by improving the structural decomposition analysis model based on input and output,the regional decoupling model is developed. Finally,the model is used to Beijing City. According to the model,the real water-saving effect of Beijing should have reached the bottleneck in 2010-2012. The effect of resource allocation should have been about 50%. Structural adjustment and mitigation effect are reverse to decoupling at the two time points of joining WTO and global financial crisis,while in recent years,structural adjustment and regional coordinated development have a great significance for decoupling.