新经济态势下经济增长对房地产投资依赖度的变化分析——基于2000-2018数据的格兰杰因果关系检验

近30年来,地方政府大量通过土地要素与资本要素的置换完成增加财政收入的目标,虽然房地产业产值占GDP的比重不断增大,GDP的增速却在放缓。可见,房地产业对经济增长的影响并不是一成不变的。在要素驱动转向创新驱动的新经济态势下,房地产业过度发展会导致产业结构不平衡进而影响经济发展。本文利用2000-2018年房地产投资数据和GDP数据进行实证分析,得出结论:GDP是导致房地产投资额变化的格兰杰原因,且GDP对房地产的影响短期见效、长期持续;反之,房地产投资短期内对GDP增减变动会产生影响,长期内作用不大。进而提出以下对策建议:让经济增长与房地产投资脱钩;持续推进国家房地产调控政策;既加大保障性住房比例,又积极开拓智慧房产新思路,保障经济长效稳健增长。

In the past 30 years,local governments have achieved the goal of increasing fiscal revenue through the replacement of land and capital elements.Although the proportion of output value of the real estate industry in GDP is increasing,the growth rate of GDP is slowing down.It can be seen that the impact of real estate on economic growth is not immutable.Under the new economic situation of factor-driven to innovation-driven,the excessive development of the real estate industry will lead to the imbalance of industrial structure and then affect the economic development.Based on real estate investment data and GDP data from 2000 to 2018,this paper concludes that GDP is the Granger cause that leads to the change of real estate investment,and the impact of GDP on real estate is effective in a short term and lasts for a long time;on the contrary,real estate investment in the short term will have an impact on the increase or decrease in GDP,and it will have little effect in the long term.Then the paper puts forward the following countermeasures and suggestions:to decouple economic growth from real estate investment,continuously advance the national real estate regulation policy;increase the proportion of subsidized housing,and meanwhile,actively explore new ideas on smart real estate and ensure a long-term and steady economic growth.