四川省航空运输业与旅游业发展水平关联度测量及预测

Coordinated development of air transport and the future of tourism in Sichuan

航空运输业与旅游业的协同发展是交通运输地理的研究热点。以四川省为研究案例,选取旅客吞吐量与游客量作为测量指标,采用灰色关联度分析与皮尔森相关系数,揭示关联度特征及相关性特征;运用回归分析,预测四川旅游业未来发展趋势。结果表明:2001-2017年四川省旅客吞吐量与游客量的关联度均高于0.63,呈现较强关联性,但关联度在0.63与1之间波动;航空吞吐量与游客量呈正向强相关性(R=0.990);2020年,游客量有望突破10亿人次。研究结论有望为航空旅游协同发展提供借鉴。

A lot of scholarship has focused on the coordinated development of air transport and tourism industry.To address this issue,this study aims to reveal the coordinated relations between the air passengers and tourists in Sichuan,an emerging international tourist destination in China.The Grey Relational Analysis indicates that the correlation coefficients from 2011 to 2017 range from 0.63 to 1,suggesting a strong correlations between the two,and this is supported by the results of Pearson’s Correlation Analysis(R=0.990).To look further,tourists in Sichuan is forecast to exceed 1 billion in 2020 by using the liner regression analysis.The empirical evidences with full practical implications will help the realization of the coordinated development of airline industry and tourism in Sichuan and beyond.