风切变时进近管制区域运行安全风险分析

Risk Analysis of Operation in the Approach Control Area on Wind Shear

进近区域是塔台管制和区域管制之间的区域,风切变是影响进近区域内航空器运行的常见恶劣天气。为了在风切变发生时提高航空器在进近区域内的安全运行水平,参考国内某进近区域实际运行情况,本文从数量研究法出发,利用SHEL模型,将进近区域内常见风险因素分为4类,邀请专家打分,建立进近区域安全风险的模糊聚类分析模型。并利用K-均值聚类分析研究了4类风险因素的风险大小。结果表明:设备的落后,人与设备、机器和设施之间的风险因素是最大的隐患。

The approach control area is the transition area between the tower control and the area control.Wind shear is a common bad weather that affects the operation of aircraft in the approach area.In order to improve the level of safe operation of aircraft in the approach area,considering the normal situation,this paper proposes a fuzzy cluster analysis model of risk evaluation in the approach area.Based on the quantitative research method and under the framework of the evaluation of safety management system,the SHEL model is used to divide the common risk factors into 4 categories.Experts are invited to score the categories,and the risk size of the four risk factors is studied by K-mean cluster analysis.The results show that the highest risk is the fusion between people and outdated facilities.