俄罗斯国际收支结构与宏观经济稳定

Russia’s Balance of Payments and Macroeconomic Stability

俄罗斯国际收支结构与卢布汇率水平、宏观经济运行有着紧密的联系。回顾俄罗斯2001年以来各年度国际收支结构变化,经常账户虽然一直保持着跨境资金净流入,但俄罗斯经济结构决定了经常账户余额波动性较强。金融账户跨境资金流动呈现较强的波动性,金融账户的跨境资金集中流出往往与汇率贬值、宏观经济失序联系在一起。俄罗斯应加强跨境资金流动的风险研判和宏观审慎管理,坚持汇率市场化方向,以此防控跨境资金流动对宏观经济稳定的冲击。

Russia's balance of payments is intimately correlated with the exchange rate of Ruble and the performance of the country's macroeconomic system.Based on a review of the changes in Russia's balance of payments since 2001,this paper holds that the large volatility of Russia's current account balance,the same feature of the country's capital account,is resulted from the country's economic structure in despite of the fact that Russia enjoys perennial current account surplus owing to net inflow of cross-border money.The mass outflow of money from capital account is associated with exchange rate devaluation and macroeconomic disorder.It is advisable for Russia to prevent and contain the impact of the cross-border flow of money onits macroeconomic stability by strengthening risk identification and adopting prudent macroeconomic measures while adhering to its market-driven mechanism of exchange rate.