转移支付、财政努力对基本公共服务供给影响的研究——一个基于省级面板数据的门槛效应分析

A Research on the Impact of Transfer Payments and Fiscal Efforts on the Supply of Basic Public Services ——Threshold Effect Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data

本文通过构建转移支付、财政供养人员规模对地区基本公共服务供给影响的基础模型并结合我国2008-2017年31个省级行政区的面板数据进行实证,发现转移支付能在一定程度上改善辖区内公共服务的供给,但该促进作用易被缺乏弹性的行政性薪金支出弱化。转移支付在提升公共服务支出占比上存在着以财政努力为门槛的三重门槛效应,随着地区财政努力程度的不断提升,转移支付对基本公共服务的增进效应也呈现阶梯性提升。因此,控制财政支出的可替换效应,加快构建与地区财政努力程度激励相容的转移支付制度,引导地方政府的支出偏好向民生领域倾斜是优化基本公共服务供给的重要环节。

A basic model of the impact of transfer payments and the scale of financially supported personnel on the supply of basic public services in the region is constructed in this paper, and an empirical study based on the panel data from 31 provincial administrative regions in China from 2008 to 2017 is carried out. It is found that the transfer payments can improve the supply of public services within the jurisdiction to some certain extent, but the promotion effect would be easily weakened by the inflexible administrative salary expenditure. Then, through the construction of panel threshold model,it is also found that there is a triple threshold effect with fiscal efforts as the threshold in increasing the ratio of public service expenditure. As the continuous improvement of regional fiscal efforts, the enhancement effect of transfer payments towards the basic public services has also been stepped up. Therefore, it can be concluded that controlling the substitutable effect of fiscal expenditure, accelerating the construction of a transfer payment system compatible with the incentives of regional fiscal efforts, as well as guiding the expenditure preference of local governments to tilt to the livelihood field are the keys to optimize the supply of basic public services.