基于水足迹理论的干旱区水资源可持续利用评价

Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity of Xinjiang Based on Water Footprint Method

本文结合水足迹模型和区域水资源承载力评价指标,通过计算新疆2001—2015年的水足迹,实现了该区域水资源承载力的评价。研究结果表明:新疆水足迹从2001年的339.1×10^8 m ^3增加至2015年的530.1×10^8 m ^3,呈现逐年增加的趋势。从总量和消费的角度分析得出,主要原因是该区域农畜产品虚拟水量的不断增加。结合2015年新疆水资源承载力指标空间分布,得出其大部分地区水资源的用水量仍可承载,但部分地区的水资源系统已处于超载状态。因此,为改善以及避免区域水资源系统超载问题,应采取调整产业结构、改变消费模式等措施缓解供需矛盾。本研究可为地区产业结构及消费模式调整提供依据。

In order to accurately evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of Xinjiang,the water footprint from 2001 to 2015 was calculated by the water footprint model and evaluation indexes of water resources carrying capacity in this paper.The results show that the water footprint increased from 339.1×10^8 m ^3 to 530.1×10^8 m ^3 from 2001 to 2015 and has an increasing trend year by year.In addition,the virtual water consumption of livestock products has a great influence on the water footprint in the total quantity and consumption.According to the spatial distribution of evaluation indexes in Xinjiang in 2015,it indicates that the water resources carrying capacity could bear the development in most of area,while the other area has been overloaded.In order to resolve the over loading problems of regional water resources system,industrial structure and consumption patterns adjustment should be adopted to release the contradiction between supply and demand.This research could provide a reference for the local industrial structure adjustment.