关于中美网络空间战略稳定的讨论——基于特朗普时期美国国内网络安全与治理领域政治因素变量分析

A Discussion on Sino-U.S. Strategic Stability in Cyberspace---Based on the Analyses of Political Variables Relevant to Cyber Security and Cyber Governance during Trump’s Administration

“战略稳定”(strategic stability)的概念来源于对于冷战中苏美两个核大国之间的所形成的相互关系的一种表述。对于中美网络空间战略稳定的探讨,需要对于“战略稳定”这一概念的源起与发展进行进一步界定与梳理。本文在前半部分通过文献综述和案例分析展示了“战略稳定”这一概念如何从冷战时期的对于战略性核武器应用与管控,逐步发展为后冷战时期对于网络空间中权力博弈的关注。在此分析的基础之上,本文在后半部分重点讨论美国对于维持中美两国在网络空间中的战略稳定的基本认知与政策路径,并通过对特朗普政府上台之后美国国内政治因素的一些变化进行具体分析,意图揭示这些变量对于维持中美网络空间战略稳定可能造成的影响。

The concept of strategic stability originates from the discussion about the interrelationship between U.S.and U.S.S.R.during the Cold War.In order to probe into Sino-U.S.strategic stability in cyberspace,one has to further define the origination and evolvement of such concept.By means of literature review and case study,the first half of this article demonstrates the evolvement of the concept of strategic stability from arms control during the Cold War to power game in cyberspace during the post-Cold War period.Based on previous analyses,the second half of this article mainly explores U.S.cognition about and policy of maintaining strategic stability between China and U.S.in cyberspace and attempts to reveal the possible consequence of domestic political variables during President Trump’s administration.