考虑后悔与失望行为的应急方案选择方法

Method of Selecting Emergency Alternative Considering Regret and Disappointment Behaviors of Decision Maker

考虑到在应急管理问题中,当决策者需要进行应急方案选择时,会存在两类心理行为:后悔心理行为和失望心理行为,针对具有混合多指标信息的应急方案选择问题提出了一种新方法。首先,计算应急方案关于伤亡人数、财产损失和社会影响等指标信息的效用值。然后,考虑到决策者的两类心理行为的特征,为确定不同的应急方案的感知效用,分别提出计算方案后悔-欣喜值和失望-愉悦值的方法。进一步地,考虑到不同应急方案的投入成本不同,计算决策者关于不同方案的投入成本的感知效用。在此基础上,根据不同应急方案的总体感知效用值,进行应急方案的排序或优选。最后,通过实例验证所提方法的可行性和有效性。

Considering that there are two kinds of psychological behaviors in emergency management when decision makers need to choose emergency plans. regret psychological behavior and disappointment psychological behavior, a new method for emergency plan selection with mixed information is proposed. Firstly, the utility value of emergency plan information about casualties, property losses and social impact is calculated.Then, considering the characteristics of two types of psychological behavior of decision makers, in order to determine the perceived utility of different emergency plans, the methods of calculating regret-rejoice value and disappointment-elation value are proposed respectively.In advance, considering the different input costs of different emergency plans, the perceived utility of decision makers about the input costs of different plans is calculated.On this basis, according to the overall perceived utility value of different emergency plans, emergency plans are ranked or optimized. Finally, an example is given to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.