三季度造纸行业企稳回暖，拐点来了？

Is the turning point coming after the third quarter’s rising momentum?

从2018年下半年以来,随着国内侧供给改革的推进以及环保政策的加严限制新增产能的投放,使得国内造纸行业供需状态开始收紧。而国外环境也日趋严峻,中美贸易摩擦不断,为了应对美国对中国的部分产品加税,中国对美国进口木材、废纸、废纸浆等产品加征25 %关税,使得原材料供应紧张。由于前期木浆和废纸等原材料价格攀升导致纸价高企,下游印刷厂、包装厂成本陡增,致使市场需求持续萎缩。国内各纸厂普遍产量大,面对市场订单的下降,导致了各大纸厂库存增多,纸价转而掉头向下。到2018年11月,国内市场纸价探底,纸厂不得不停机保价,从去年四季度至今年一季度,造纸行业陷入低迷,整体利润下降,大部分纸企的业绩大幅下滑。

Although the profit of the paper industry declined sharply in the first half of 2019,the industry began to recover in the second half of the year.After September,due to the dual impact of the National Day consumption expectations and environmental protection policies during the large-scale activities,the price of many paper grades have been raised by the leading enterprises,and the profits of the enterprises have also increased.It seems that in the third quarter,a turning point is coming after six consecutive quarters of slowdown and even recession.When it comes to the fourth quarter,there’s still many uncertainties.So will the market continue to grow?How can we predict the paper market in the fourth quarter?In this issue,we selected some ideas and predictions from senior market analysts and consulting organizations for you the refer.