极端降水时空分布特征研究——以江苏省为例

Spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of multi-scale extreme precipitation:taking Jiangsu province as an example

文章基于江苏省1981-2014年逐日降水资料,根据极端降水的时间趋势、空间分布特征,从年际变化和季节变化两个尺度研究极端降水特征。结果表明:(1)时间趋势上,在研究的近30年(1981-2014年)里,极端降水频率呈下降趋势,而极端降水量明显增多。(2)时间突变上,1991年为一个时间突变点。(3)空间分布上,苏南地区受极端降水影响的程度比苏北地区大。(4)四季变化上,夏季是受极端降水影响最大的季节,春季和冬季极端降水较有规律。

This paper selects the daily precipitation data from 1981 to 2014 to study the characteristics of the temporal trends and spatial distribution of extreme precipitation in Jiangsu Province and the two scales of interannual and seasonal changes. The results show that:(1)On the trend of time, in the last 30 years of the study(in the period of 1981-2014 year), the frequency of extreme precipitation is decreasing, and the extreme precipitation is obviously increased.(2) 1991 is the time change point.(3) In terms of spatial distribution, the extent of extreme precipitation in southern Jiangsu province is greater than in northern Jiangsu Province.(4) In the four seasons, summer is the season most affected by extreme precipitation and extreme precipitation in spring and winter is more regular.