台湾水稻生产效率的实证分析

Changes of Rice Production Efficiency in Taiwan

【目的】正确认识台湾水稻生产效率的变化及引起变化的原因。【方法】利用DEA与Malmquist生产力指数及灰色关联度分析,研究台湾2002—2016年15县市的水稻生产效率、全要素生产率变化及其分解指数,以及各指数之间的关联系数。【结果】(1)台湾水稻生产效率整体处于较高水平(0.970),第一期水稻的生产效率(0.974)略高于第二期(0.966);(2)不同县市水稻生产效率不同,宜兰县、新竹县、新竹市、彰化县、嘉义县市和台东县生产效率均达到1,处于较高水平;(3)台湾水稻生产效率增长波动较大,第一、二期的全要素生产率指数分别为0.987和0.955,每年降幅分别为1.3%和4.5%,总体呈退步状态;(4)台湾第一、二期水稻生产率的变动与技术进步的关联系数分别为0.7469、0.8932,与技术效率变化的关联系数分别为0.5832、0.6056,水稻生产率的变化主要受技术进步的影响,受技术效率变化的影响较小。【结论】台湾水稻生产效率整体处于较高水平,全要素生产率指数呈退步状态,其变动主要受技术进步影响,政策调整效果初显,效率的损失可以通过技术进步弥补。

【Objective】The changes of rice production efficiency taken place in Taiwan from 2002 to 2016 were analyzed.【Method】The production data were compared according to the data envelopment analysis,Malmquist productivity index,and grey relational analysis.【Result】The mean rice production efficiency in Taiwan during the period was 0.970,and that for the 1st season was 0.974,slightly higher than that of 0.966 for the 2nd season.There were variations among the localities with the highest of 1.000 achieved in Yilan County,Hsinchu County/City,Changhua County,Chiayi County/City,and Taitung County.The efficiency also fluctuated substantially,as the productivity index for the 1st season to be 0.987 with an annual decline of 1.3%and that for the 2nd season to be 0.955 with an annual decline of 4.5%.The correlation between the efficiency and technological advancement had a coefficient of 0.7469 for the 1st season and 0.8932 for the 2nd season.Whereas,that between the efficiency and operational effectiveness had a coefficient of 0.5832 for the 1st season and 0.6056 for the 2nd season.Thus,it appeared that the technological progress affected the rice production efficiency to a greater degree.【Conclusion】The rice production in Taiwan was highly efficient but differed regionally and showed a generally downward trend.Its efficiency changed over the years due largely to the technical innovation,which,along with policy augments,partially compensated the scope of the otherwise decline.