产业转型发展下北京市社会经济系统用水变化及驱动因素

Variationlaws anddriving factors of water use of socioeconomic system in Beijing under industrial transformation

分析北京社会经济系统产业用水变动规律和决定因素,对促进区域水-生态-社会经济复杂系统的可持续发展有重要意义。基于2002年、2007年、2012年和2013-2016年数据测度了北京市社会经济系统部门的用水量,利用结构分解分析模型探究了2002-2007年与2007-2012年两个时段内社会经济系统用水量变化驱动因素。结果表明:2002-2012年28个社会经济产业部门用水效率提升导致其直接用水系数和完全用水系数呈下降趋势,然而,在产业部门规模扩张驱动下完全用水量呈上升趋势。最终需求消耗增长拉动的规模扩张效应是产业用水增长的主要因素,经济系统效率效应对产业用水增长的贡献较小。产业技术进步是降低产业用水的最主要因素,产业转型发展通过结构效应发挥了其对用水量减少抑制作用。鉴于北京市向高新技术与现代服务业的产业转型发展目标,建议根据产业发展特点、产业转型发展目标,从经济和行政手段两方面制定针对性的水资源管理措施。

The analysis of the variation laws and determinants of industrial water use of the socioeconomic system in Beijing is of great significance for promoting the sustainable development of the regional water-ecology-society-economy complex system. The water consumption of the socioeconomic system sectors of Beijing in 2002,2007,2012 and 2013-2016 is measured. The driving factors for the variation of the water consumption in two periods of2002-2007 and 2007-2012 are investigated by using the structural decomposition analysis model. The results show that the increasing water-use efficiency of 28 sectors from 2002 to2012 leads to a decreasing trend in the direct water-use coefficient and the complete water-use coefficient. However,the total water consumption is on the rise due to the expansion of the industrial sectors. The scale expansion effect driven by the growth of the final demand consumption is the main factor for the growth of industrial water consumption,and the economic system efficiency effect contributes less to the growth of industrial water use. The industrial technology progress is the most important factor in reducing the industrial water use. The industrial transformation and development has exerted its effect on reducing the water consumption through structural effects. In view of the Beijing’s industrial transformation and development goal for high-tech and modern service industries, it is proposed to formulate targeted water resource management measures from both the economic and the administrative aspects according to the characteristics of industrial development and the goal ofindustrial transformation and development.