大规模减税降费政策的宏观经济效应模拟——2019—2020年中国宏观经济再展望

Simulation of the Macroeconomic Effect of China’s Large-scale Tax Reduction Policy: Revision of the Outlook of China’s Macroeconomy in 2019 and 2020

“中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM)”课题组于2019年10月举行了中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM)的第二十七次预测发布。本次预测发布了2019年下半年和2020年共六个季度的中国宏观经济主要指标预测值,继续跟踪考察中美贸易摩擦发展变化的可能性及其对中国宏观经济的影响,并模拟分析了当前更大规模减税降费政策的宏观经济效应。结果表明,中国GDP增速“稳中趋降”的态势还将延续,增速下滑的幅度取决于中美贸易摩擦的发展方向。当前减税降费政策主要从供给端为企业“降成本”,在外部市场需求不确定性提高以及国内市场消费增速趋缓的背景下,大规模减税降费政策的投资激励效应有限。若将减税降费政策的主体由企业转向居民,从需求端拉动消费增长进而带动投资增长,那么,相同规模的个人所得税减免所产生的宏观经济正向效应会更为显著。因此,课题组建议:当前应加大对居民个体的减税力度;同时,应防止居民家庭债务率进一步提高;长期应从根本上加快居民实际可支配收入的增长,并缩小收入差距。

The Xiamen University research group released its 27th forecast based on the China Quarterly Macroeconomic Model(CQMM)at Xiamen University Malaysia on October 25,2019.The forecast covered China’s main macroeconomic indicators in the second half of 2019 and the whole of 2020,following up on the trend of China’s economy amidst the China-U.S.trade frictions.It also simulated the relevant macroeconomic effect of China’s current large-scale tax reduction policy.The results show that China’s GDP growth rate would continue to decline,and the magnitude of decline would largely depend on the developmental direction of the China-U.S.trade frictions.Further,subject to the policy orientation of"cost reduction"for enterprises,the large-scale tax reduction policy in China hasn’t effectively encouraged enterprises to increase their investments in the context of increasing uncertainty over external market demand and growth in domestic consumption.Therefore,considering the increasing uncertainty over external market,and the slowdown of the domestic market due to factors such as the high household debt ratio,slow growth of actual disposable income and difficulty in narrowing the income gap,the research group recommends that the focus of the tax reduction policy be shifted from enterprises to households.With such a shift,the positive macroeconomic effects generated by personal income tax reduction at the same scale will be more significant.