思维拓展:事故是可以预防的吗?风险管控在于预防高风险事件还是严重后果事件

Thinking development:can accidents be prevented?——Risk management is to prevent high-risk events or serious consequences

针对风险管控有两种主要思路,一是基于事故后果的严重程度;二是基于风险值的高低。两种不同的管理思路影响了风险标准的制定和管理,也影响了决策。本文将系统分析讨论两种思路的不同,提出风险管理的科学思路,暨重点关注高风险的事件,而不单单是最坏事件,以此来论证事故是否可以预防。文章首次创造性的提出“沉没污染”概念,以分析污染防治本身产生的二次污染。另外,文章系统阐述了“事故可预见才可预防”的观点,提出了责任追究体系应该优化和完善的地方。最后,基于事故金字塔理论,提出了风险管控的重点。

There are two main ideas for risk management and control,one is based on the severity of the consequences of the accident;the other is based on the level of risk.Two different management ideas affect the formulation and management of risk standards and also influence decision making.This paper will systematically analyze and discuss the differences between the two ideas,put forward the scientific ideas of risk management,and focus on high-risk events,not just the worst events,to prove whether the accident can be prevented.For the first time,the article creatively proposed the concept of“sinking pollution”to analyze the secondary pollution caused by pollution prevention itself.In addition,the article systematically elaborates on the viewpoint that“accidents can be foreseen to prevent”and puts forward the place where the accountability system should be optimized and improved.Finally,based on the accident pyramid theory,the focus of risk management and control is put forward.