中国海上兴起与国际海洋安全秩序——有限多极格局下的新型大国协调

China’ Maritime Rise and International Maritime Security Order: A New Type Concert of Powers in the Posture of Limited Multipolar Pattern

当前,国际海洋安全秩序研究的重要性与日俱增。一方面,海洋地缘政治竞争、海洋争议和全球性海洋安全等问题愈演愈烈,世界亟待建立有效的海洋安全制度;另一方面,有关海洋安全的共识、制度和规则极度缺失,整个世界缺乏一个包容各主要海上力量的秩序架构。随着中俄等后发海洋强国的兴起,美国主导的海洋安全秩序的包容性越来越受到质疑。对于中国而言,自身的海洋强国建设已经到了需要认真思考和澄清自身国际海洋秩序主张的阶段。以往的研究往往对经济秩序和安全秩序不加区分,宽泛讨论海洋秩序的总体设计,且缺乏相应的实证分析。鉴此,作者从国际秩序的概念、内涵和构建方式出发分析海洋秩序,意在澄清第二次世界大战后国际海洋秩序演进的二元结构及其与中国的关系,评估中国海上兴起的程度及其对国际海洋安全秩序的具体影响。基于对中国实力、未来海上战略格局发展态势以及国际海洋安全形势和趋势的考察,中国应该积极构建以“有限多极下的新型大国协调”为基础的海洋安全秩序。该倡议的核心内涵是大国间的相互克制和相互妥协以及基于能力优势的领导作用。协调的对象并非势力范围或力量对比,而是行为规则和规范。其中,“积极的和平”“平衡的自由”和“全面的包容”应是大国协调的主要内容。

At present,the research on the international maritime security order is becoming more and more important.On the one hand,maritime geopolitical competition,maritime disputes and global maritime security among other issues are becoming increasingly fierce,and the world urgently needs to establish an effective maritime security framework.On the other hand,consensus,system and rules on maritime security are extremely lacking,and the whole world lacks an order structure that includes all major maritime powers.With the rise of late-coming maritime powers such as China and Russia,the inclusiveness of the U.S.-led maritime security order is increasingly questioned.As for China,the construction of its own maritime power has reached a stage where it needs to seriously consider and clarify its own proposals for the international maritime order.Past studies often do not distinguish the economic order from the security order,and mostly discuss the overall design of the maritime order in a broad sense without corresponding empirical analysis.In view of this,this paper begins to analyze maritime order from the concept,connotation and construction mode of the international order.The main points are to clarify the dual structure of the evolution of the international maritime order since the Second World War and its relationship with China,and assess the extent of China s maritime rise and its specific impact on the international maritime security order.Based on the investigation on China s strength,the development trend of future maritime strategic pattern and the situation and trend of international maritime security,this paper argues that China should actively promote to build a maritime security order based on the“New Type of Power Concert in the Posture of Limited Multipolar Pattern”.The core connotation of this initiative is mutual restraint and compromise among major powers,as well as the leadership based on their capacity advantages.The object of coordination is not the sphere of influence or the balance of power,but the rules and norms of international maritime behavior.Among them,“positive peace”,“balanced freedom”and“all-round inclusiveness”should be the main contents.