储备基金、国家福利基金与俄罗斯经济发展——基于月度数据的实证分析

Reserve Fund,National Welfare Fund and Russian Economic Development——An Empirical Analysis based on Monthly Data

作为平抑宏观经济波动、提高国民福利水平的一项政策工具,储备基金和国家福利基金曾经对俄罗斯经济发展产生了重大影响。对此,文章采用2008-2016年的月度数据,利用VAR-VECM模型进行了实证分析。研究表明:在长期,俄罗斯的储备基金和国家福利基金与俄罗斯的经济波动、产业结构调整、人民生活水平之间存在稳定的相互影响关系;在短期,储备基金和国家福利基金的规模扩张能够有效降低国内通货膨胀、提高人民生活水平,且储备基金的规模扩张能够有效推动俄罗斯原油出口规模的增长,国家福利基金的规模扩张能够有效缓解俄罗斯经济的石油依赖。此外,国家福利基金对俄罗斯宏观经济的影响要明显大于储备基金。总的来看,储备基金和国家福利基金是俄罗斯经济转型发展的"稳定器"和"助推器"。

As a policy tool to suppress macroeconomic fluctuations and improve the level of national welfare,the reserve fund and the national welfare fund once had a significant impact on the process of Russian economic development. With monthly data from 2008 to 2016,the influences from VAR model and VECM model are analyzed empirically in the paper. The result shows that in the long run,there are stable interactional relationships between these two funds and Russian economic development;in the short run,the scale expansion of reserve fund can reduce domestic inflation,improve people’s living standard and expand crude oil export scale at the same time,and the scale expansion of national welfare fund can reduce domestic inflation,improve people’s living standards and reduce oil dependence in the meantime. The impact of the national welfare fund on Russian economic development is significantly greater than that of the reserve fund. In summary,the reserve fund and the national welfare fund are the"stabilizer"and"booster"of Russia’s economic transformation and development.