预期价格、饲养成本与生猪价格关系的实证检验——基于四川省的统计数据

An Empirical Study of the Relationship between Expected Price, Feeding Cost and Live Pig Price——Based on Statistics of Sichuan Province

[目的/意义]受中美贸易摩擦以及非洲猪瘟疫情事件的叠加效应影响,进入2019年,四川省生猪价格出现大幅波动,严重影响到居民的日常生活。在此背景下,对生猪价格的相关影响因素进行计量分析,厘清上下游价格的传导机制对稳定生猪市场价格具有重要意义。[方法/过程]本文以2015-2019年的四川省生猪、豆粕、仔猪价格以及滞后16周生猪价格数据为研究样本,利用向量误差修正模型、格兰杰(Granger)因果检验等实证方法探究互动关系。[结果/结论]短期内相关影响会对四川省生猪市场价格产生较大冲击,但长期内随着相关因素冲击力的减弱,生猪市场价格恢复稳定。基于研究结论,本文提出应采取加强政府宏观政策的连续性和可预见性、积极开拓生猪原料市场、加快进口替代生产、改善现有生猪补贴时机和对象、加快推出生猪期货和生猪价格保险等措施来稳定生猪市场价格。

[Purpose/Significance]Affectedby the superposition effect of Sino-US trade friction and African swine fever epidemic,the price of live pigs in Sichuan Province in 2019 fluctuated greatly,which seriously affects the daily life of residents.In this context,the quantitative analysis of the relevant factors that affect the price of live pigs,and clarifying the transmission mechanism of upstream and downstream prices are of great significance for the government to adjust macro-control policies and effectively stabilize market prices.[Method/Process]This paper takes the data of pigs,soybean meal,piglets and the 16-week hog price in Sichuan Province from 2015 to 2019 as the research samples,and uses the vector error correction model and the Granger causality test to explore their interactionrelationship.[Results/Conclusions]The short-term related impact will have a greater influence on the market price of pigs in Sichuan.However,in the long run,the price of live pigs will stabilize with the weakening of relevant factors.Based on the above conclusions,the paper proposes to strengthen the government's macro policy continuity and predictability,actively explore the raw material market for pigs,speed up the import substitution production,improve the timing and targets of existing pig subsidies,and accelerate the implementation of hog futures and hog price insurance to stabilize the hog market price.