我国财政与货币政策协调问题研究

Research on the Coordination of Fiscal and Monetary Policy in China

针对当前"稳增长"与"稳杠杆"的双重目标,本文构建了一个包含财政、货币政策四种规则的新凯恩斯主义动态随机一般均衡分析框架,利用我国1995-2016年间的数据进行估计,然后从平滑机制和联动机制两个层面探讨财政货币政策如何配合问题。研究发现,从平滑机制看,财政货币政策需要各自加强相机调节力度,从联动机制看,利率需要对税收冲击负向响应,而政府支出需要对货币供给冲击正向响应。研究表明,与现行政策范式相比,政策搭配优化后的调控效果较好。

In view of the dual objectives of"stable growth"and"stable leverage",this paper constructs a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium analysis framework which includes four rules of fiscal and monetary policy.It uses the data of China from 1995 to 2016 to estimate,and then discusses how to coordinate fiscal and monetary policies from the two aspects of smoothing mechanism and interactive mechanism.From the perspective of smoothing mechanism,fiscal and monetary policies should strengthen discretionary adjustment.From the perspective of interactive mechanism,interest rates need to respond negatively to tax shocks,while government expenditure needs to respond positively to money supply shocks.The research shows that,compared with the current policy paradigm,the regulation effect of optimizing policy mix is better.