外部需求不确定性、出口网络与企业出口行为

Uncertainty of External Demand,Export Network and Export Behaviors of the Enterprises

利用中国2001~2013年的出口海关数据匹配全球各国国家层面的消费需求数据,文章探究出口企业在面临外部市场需求不确定时的出口行为。研究发现:(1)当需求波动程度增大、需求近似偏度变小时,潜在企业选择进入该市场的概率将减少,已出口企业退出该市场的概率增大,同时在位的存活企业会减少出口量和提高出口价格。(2)随着某市场需求波动的增大,出口国家数目较多的企业会以更大概率退出该市场,在位的存活企业会更多地减少产量,但以更少的提价幅度应对需求不确定性的增加;这表明出口网络大的企业具有更强的出口调整能力和风险抵御能力。

Through matching the data of export customs data from 2001 to 2013 and the consumption demand data of the countries around the world,this paper explores the export behaviors of the export enterprises in the face of uncertain external market demand.The research reveals that:(1)when the degree of demand fluctuation raises and the approximate skewness of demand reduces,the probability of potential enterprises to enter the market will decrease and the probability of export enterprises to withdraw from the market will increase.Meanwhile,the existing enterprises will reduce the export volume and raise the export price;(2)when the demand fluctuation of a certain market increases,the enterprises with larger number of export destinations will exit the market at a higher probability,and more existing enterprises will reduce their output,but cope with the increase of demand uncertainty with less price increase.These facts indicate that the enterprises with large export network have stronger export adjustment ability and risk resistance ability.