中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易关系演进研究

Research on the Evolution of Trade Relations between China and the Countries along the Belt and Road

文章基于2003~2017年中国与“一带一路”沿线国家双边贸易数据,运用社会网络分析方法探索中国与“一带一路”沿线国家双边贸易互动关系。研究发现:“一带一路”贸易网络经历了由多核心向以中国为单一核心的格局转变,中国在“一带一路”贸易网络中的中心度和核心度持续提升,已经成为“一带一路”贸易网络中最为核心的国家。“一带一路”贸易网络形成了中国-东南亚、南亚-西亚、中东欧-中亚三个贸易子群,中国处于以东盟国家为主要参与国的贸易子群。不同贸易子群之间存在明显的结构差异,中国-东南亚子群呈内部贸易结构,南亚-西亚贸易子群表现出核心-边缘特征,中东欧-中亚子群则呈去核心结构。

Based on the bilateral trade data between China and the countries along the Belt and Road from 2003 to 2017,this paper applies the social network analysis to explore the bilateral trade interaction between China and the countries along the Belt and Road.The research shows that the trade network of the Belt and Road has undergone a transformation from a multi-core structure to a single-core structure with China as its core.With the continuously upgrading of its centrality and core degree in the trade network of the Belt and Road,China has become the most important country in this trade network.Three trade subgroups are formed in the trade network of the Belt and Road,including China-Southeast Asia subgroup,South Asia-West Asia subgroup as well as Central and Eastern Europe-Central Asia subgroup.China is in the trade subgroup with ASEAN countries as the main participating countries.Obvious structural differences exist among different trade subgroups.China-Southeast Asia subgroup has an internal trade structure,while South Asia-West Asia subgroup shows the core-edge feature and Central and Eastern Europe-Central Asia subgruop is characterized with a de-core structure.