广东自贸区对粤港澳经济联系强度的影响效应评估——基于反事实分析法的研究

Evaluation of the Effects of Guangdong FTA on the Economic Linkages Intensity among Guangdong,Hong Kong and Macao: A Research Based on Counterfactual Analysis

扩大粤港澳深度合作是广东自贸区成立的重要战略目标之一,其政策效应评估具有重要意义。文章基于2003年第4季度至2017年第4季度的数据,运用“反事实”分析法评估了广东自贸区的设立对粤港澳经济联系强度的影响。研究结果表明,从长期来看,广东自贸区的设立确实对粤港之间的经济联系强度的提升起了重要的促进作用。但是,从短期来看,政策的滞后性使得该效应未能凸显。此外,在研究期间内,广东自贸区的设立并未给粤澳经济联系强度带来提升作用。相反,在粤港经济联系日益密切的前提下,粤澳经济联系强度在一定程度上受到抑制,且抑制效应随时间推移而逐步增强。

Expanding the deep cooperation among Guangdong,Hong Kong and Macao is one of the important strategic objectives of the establishment of Guangdong Free Trade Area(FTA),and the evaluation of its policy effects is of great significance.Based on the data from the 4th quarter of 2003 to the 4th quarter of 2017,the effects of the establishment of Guangdong FTA on the economic linkages intensity among Guangdong,Hong Kong and Macao are evaluated with counterfactual analysis.The research results show that the establishment of Guangdong FTA indeed plays an important role in promoting the economic linkages intensity between Guangdong and Hong Kong in the long term.However,this effect fails to be highlighted in the short term due to the lag of policy.Besides,during the research period,Guangdong FTA doesn’t exert a significant driving effect on the economic linkages intensity between Guangdong and Macao.On the contrary,the economic linkages intensity between Guangdong and Macao is inhibited to a certain extent on the premise of the increasingly close economic linkages between Guangdong and Hong Kong,and this inhibitory effect increases gradually with the passage of time.