兼顾分配公平与增长可持续性的税制优化路径——基于跨国数据联立方程的经验分析

Tax Structure Optimization Path Considering Both Distribution Equity and Economic Growth Sustainability:Empirical Analysis Based on Simultaneous Equations of Cross-Country Data

科学的财税体制有利于促进再分配公平与维持经济增长。本文基于1980~2018年跨国数据,采用联立方程系统估计方法,对税制结构、居民收入分配和经济增长三者之间关系进行实证分析,发现提高直接税-间接税比例能够通过"纵向公平"机制缩小收入分配差距,并通过"收入效应"机制保持经济增长,实现二者兼顾,但是会因国家所处的不同收入阶段而异。因此,应根据经济发展水平,加快建立以直接税为主体的税制结构。

A scientific fiscal and taxation system is conducive to promoting redistribution equity and maintaining economic growth. Based on the cross-country data from 1980 to 2018, using the simultaneous equation system estimation method, the empirical analysies of the relationship among tax structure, income distribution and economic growth finds that increasing of direct tax-indirect tax ratio can narrow the income distribution gap through the "vertical fairness" mechanism and maintain the economic growth through the "income effect" mechanism, and achieve both;but in different countries classed by income level, this effect of narrowing income distribution gap and maintaining economic growth by increasing direct tax-indirect tax ratio is different. It is suggested to speed up the establishment of a tax structure with direct tax as the main tax according to the level of economic development.