基于三维水足迹-LMDI的安徽省水资源压力及驱动力分析

An Analysis of Water Resources Pressure and Driving Forces in Anhui Province Based on LMDI-Three-Dimensional Water Footprint Model

[目的]探究区域水资源压力状态和产生的原因,为区域合理开发和配置水资源提供理论依据。[方法]通过构建三维水足迹模型,利用水资源可持续指数定性分析水资源可持续程度,并用对数平均迪氏指数(LMDI)分解法因素分解模型定量分析结构效应、技术效应、经济效应和人口效应对2007-2016年间安徽省水资源压力的影响。[结果]①2007-2016年间安徽省水足迹总体先增加后下降,其中比例达97.88%~98.73%的内部水足迹中以农业生产用水比例最高且与总水足迹变化趋势一致;2016年安徽省由北向南人均农业用水依次递减,其他类型水足迹以长江流域比例最高;②2007-2016年间安徽省水足迹深度在2~4内波动并最终呈下降趋势且由北向南逐渐递减;2007-2016年安徽省水资源整体可持续利用趋势在增强;③安徽省水足迹各驱动因素中,技术效应为逆向驱动,正向驱动中经济效应贡献值最大。[结论]本文所用三维水足迹模型更能反映安徽省水足迹的实际情况;虽然水资源可持续利用趋势在增强,但还需优化水资源利用结构,加快提高水资源利用效率以缓解经济发展和人口增长带来的水环境压力。

[Objective] This study aims to explore the regional water stress state and their causes and provides a theoretical basis for the development and allocation of rational water resources. [Methods] A three-dimensional water footprint model was built to analyze the sustainability of water resources by using the sustainability index of water resource. The logarithmic mean divisia index(LMDI) factor decomposition model was also applied to quantitatively analyze the structural, technological, economic, and population effects on water resources in Anhui Province from 2007 to 2016. [Results] ① From 2007 to 2016, the water footprint of Anhui Province, in which the internal water footprints accounted for 97.88% to 98.73%, at first increased and then decreased. The consumption of water by agriculture among the internal water footprints was the highest and showed the same variation as the overall water footprint. In 2016, the per capita agricultural water use in Anhui Province decreased from north to south, meanwhile, the Yangtze River basin accounted for the highest proportion in the other types of water footprint. ② During 2007-2016, the footprint depth of the Anhui Province fluctuated within 2~4 and eventually declined from north to south. The results indicated that the overall sustainable use of water resources in Anhui Province increased from 2007 to 2016. ③ The driving factors of the water footprint in Anhui Province showed that the technical effect was a reverse driving, and the economic effect contributed the most to the positive driving. [Conclusion] The three-dimensional water footprint model used in this study can be a helpful tool to better reflect the actual situation of the water footprint in Anhui Province. Although of the use of water resources generally increased, optimizing the structure of the water resources utilization and accelerating improvements in the efficiency of water resource usage is necessary to alleviate the pressure on water resources resulting from economic development and population growth.