气候和人为因素对植被变化影响的评价方法综述

Recent Advances in Driving Mechanisms of Climate and Anthropogenic Factors on Vegetation Change

系统评价气候变化和人为因素引起的植被退化,对有效开展生态工程建设、实现生态环境的可持续发展具有重要意义。目前绝大多研究主要分析气候因素对植被变化的影响,分析气候因素和人类活动对植被变化的双重影响少有研究。本文主要介绍这一双重影响对植被变化的贡献程度的主要研究方法--定性-半定量法、回归分析法、残差趋势法、基于净第一生产力的评价方法。综述分析了气候和人为因素对植被变化驱动的主要结论,总结目前各研究方法存在的问题,提出了未来需要重点加强气候和人为因素对植被变化驱动因素的分解研究,加强模型评价和不确定性量化研究等。

Understanding how the dynamics of vegetation growth respond to climate change and human activities at different temporal and spatial scales is critical to project future ecosystem dynamics. At present, most of the studies mainly analyze the influence of climate change on vegetation, but there are few studies on the dual effects of climate change and human activities on vegetation. We systematically reviewed the methods of how to identify contributions of climate change and human activities on vegetation at quantitative aspects, including the qualitative and semi-quantitative assessment, regression analysis, residual trend method, and the first Net Primary Production based evaluation method. By summarizing and analyzing the progresses of previous researches on quantitative evaluation of the contributions and the existing problems, we found that it would be necessary to strengthen the study of disassembling the driving mechanisms of climate change and human activities on vegetation, as well as model evaluation and uncertainty analysis in the future.