中国地方政府债务空间关联性研究

Research on the Spatial Correlation of Local Government Debts in China

地方政府债务作为一把典型的"双刃剑",其相互之间的空间相关性日益受到理论界和学术界的重视。以2013年和2016年30个省市的地方政府债务数据为研究对象,对其全局和局部空间自相关性进行理论探讨和计量检验研究,结果表明:各省市地方政府债务之间存在正向空间关联性,并且固定资产投资占比、财政收入汲取率、财政自给率以及财政收入稳定率与负债率呈正相关,而GDP增长率和城镇化率与负债率呈负相关。结论丰富了地方政府债务空间相关性的影响因素,同时对中央政府实行省域间的政府债务区域差异政策和监督管理政策具有一定的参考价值。

Based on the data of local government debts in 30 provinces in 2013 and 2016,the local government debts have been analyzed in global and local spatial autocorrelation.The results show that there is a positive spatial correlation belween debts of local governments in different province and cities,and the proportion of fixed ascet investment, the rate of fiscal revenue absorption,the rate of fiscal self-sufficiency and the rate of revenue stabilpty are positively related to the debt rate,while the rate of GDP growth and the rate of urbanization are negatively related to the debt rate.on this basis,this paper gives some suggestions on the implementation of inter provincial government debt regional policy and supervision and management policy.