“一带一路”建设中合作国家债务可持续性研究——基于对肯尼亚债务风险的评估风险

Study on the Sustainability of Cooperation Countries in the Construction of the “Belt and Road”——based on the risk assessment of Kenya’s debt risk

本文利用2014-2017年肯尼亚宏观经济数据及中期预测数据,研究了肯尼亚公共外债的可持续性,并考察了肯尼亚主要债务风险来源。研究发现:(1)目前肯尼亚并未陷入债务危机;(2)肯尼亚的公共外债具有可持续性;(3)肯尼亚的债务风险主要来自于财政赤字规模过大和资本预算执行率低等;(4)肯尼亚、国际机构、中国各方今后应为肯尼亚债务风险调控做出更多的积极努力与援助。本文不仅从新的视角研究了肯尼亚债务可持续性,而且研究结论对于如何缓解相关合作国家债务风险、更好地推动"一带一路"发展也具有重要的现实意义。

By using the Kenya’s macroeconomic data and medium-term forecast data in 2014-2017,we investigate the sustainability of Kenya’s public external debt and examine the main reasons of debt risk in Kenya.The results show that,firstly,Kenya is not in debt distress at present.Secondly,the risk of external debt distress of Kenya is moderate,indicating its public external debt is sustainable.Thirdly,Kenya’s debt risk mainly comes from the excessive fiscal deficit and inefficient capital budgeting.Kenya,international financial institutions and China should make more contributions to improving Kenya’s debt sustainability.This paper not only promotes the sustainablity research of Kenya’s debt from a new perspective,but also has important practical significance for achieving high-quality development of the BRI,alleviating the debt risks of the Belt and Road countries,and creating a community of shared future for mankind.