我国价格型货币政策工具对房价调控机理研究——基于利率、汇率价格型政策工具的理论分析

Research on the Mechanism of Price-based Monetary Policy Tools in China——A theoretical analysis based on interest rate and exchange rate price policy tools

在中央明确"房住不炒"的背景下,加大政策对房价的有效调控力度至关重要。本文通过理论结合实证,研究了我国利率、汇率两种货币政策工具对房价调控的有效性。研究认为:从长期来看,利率、汇率为主的价格型货币政策对房价调控总体上是有效的;从短期来看,利率和汇率均不能对房价调控产生明显有效的调控作用,但可以通过时滞效应,逐步显现出来。此外,从商品房性质看,汇率政策工具在调控新建商品房和二手房价格上是基本同质的,但利率政策工具对二手商品房价格的调控效果比新建商品房价格更明显,持续性也更加显著。

Under the general trend of"central living and not speculating"in the central government,it is of vital importance to increase policies to effectively regulate housing prices.Through the combination of theory and evidence,this paper studies the effectiveness of China’s interest rate and exchange rate monetary policy tools on house price regulation.The study believes that in the long run,interest rate and exchange rate-based monetary policy are generally effective in controlling house prices;in the short term,interest rates and exchange rates cannot have a significant effective regulation of house price regulation,but they can pass The effect of time lag is gradually emerging.In addition,from the nature of commercial housing,the exchange rate policy tool is basically homogeneous in regulating the price of new commercial housing and second-hand housing,but the effect of interest rate policy tools on the price of second-hand commercial housing is more obvious than the price of new commercial housing,and the sustainability is more significant.