乡村振兴中农民转型的普惠金融支持及其福利效应

Inclusive Financial Support for Farmers’ Transformation in Rural Revitalization and Its Welfare Effect

农民转型中的普惠金融支持及其福利影响是一个重要课题。从我国2005-2016年省际面板数据的实证研究结论看,农村金融普惠性与农民转型程度互为格兰杰原因,具有双向互促效应。同时,农村普惠金融发展对农民转型虽然并不存在"立竿见影"的福利效应,但长期农村普惠金融对农民转型具有福利增益效应。此外,在考虑农业现代化这一变量后,农村普惠金融发展指数无论是当期还是滞后一期都对农民转型的福利收益具有显著的正向影响。更为重要的是,农业现代化会降低农民市民化转型的福利收益,增大其向新型职业农民转型的福利收益预期。因此,农村普惠金融发展服务农民转型既要支持城镇化进程中的剩余农业人口市民化,更要着力支持乡村振兴中一二三产业融合发展、农业现代化进程中的农民职业化。

Inclusive financial support and its welfare impact in farmers’ transformation are an important academic subject.From the empirical research results of the provincial panel data of the mainland of China from2005 to 2016,we can see that rural financial inclusion and farmers’ transformation degree are Granger reasons for each other and have two-way mutual promotion effect.Meanwhile,the development of inclusive rural finance has no immediate welfare effect on farmers’ transformation,but it has welfare gain in the long run.In addition,after considering the variable of agricultural modernization,the rural inclusive financial development has a significant positive impact on the welfare benefits of farmers’ transformation both in the current and lagging period.More importantly,agricultural modernization will reduce the welfare benefits of farmer civilization transformation and increase their expectations of welfare benefits in the transformation to a new type of professional farmers.Therefore,to serve the farmer’s transformation,the rural inclusive financial development should not only support the urbanization of the remaining agricultural population,but also focus on supporting the integration and development of secondary and tertiary industries in rural revitalization,and the professionalization of farmers in the process of agricultural modernization.