对外贸易、经济增长与二氧化碳排放——基于分位数回归的实证研究

Foreign Trade, Economic Growth and Carbon Emissions in China——Empirical Research Based on Quantile Regreesion

基于1997-2016年中国30个省级地区的数据,建立面板分位数回归模型考量对外贸易与经济增长对不同分位水平二氧化碳排放的影响.研究发现:在各分位点对外贸易对碳排放的影响为负,但仅在高分位点显著,并且对外贸易的减排效应表现出随碳排放量增加而增加的趋势.经济增长在50%分位点以外的其他分位点对碳排放具有显著的促进作用,但环境库兹涅茨假说只在低排放省份和高排放省份有效;进一步研究显示,对外贸易通过促进经济增长对碳排放产生的正向间接影响大于负向直接影响,对外贸易总体上加剧了环境污染,验证了“污染天堂假说”.

Applying panel quantile regression technique,this paper adopts 30 provincial-level panel data in China for the period of 1997-2016 to explore the effects of foreign trade and economic growth on different quantiles of CO 2 emissions.The empirical results show that the coefficient of foreign trade is negative but only significant at high quantiles,and its reduction effect increases with CO 2 emissions increased.The effect of economic growth on CO 2 emissions is positive and significant except at the 50%quantile,but the environmental Kuznets curve(EKC)hypothesis is valid only in the low-and high-emission provinces.Further research shows that the positive indirect effect of foreign trade on CO 2 emissions through the income path is found to be positive and dominants the negative direct effect,and the total effect of foreign trade appears aggravate environmental depredation,thus the pollution heaven hypothesis are confirmed in China.