产业创新生态系统种群构成与产业创新能力的关系——基于向量自回归（VAR）模型的实证分析

Relationship Between the Composition of Industrial Innovation Ecosystem and Industrial Innovation Ability:Empirical Analysis of Vector Autoregressive(VAR) Model

从中观产业创新生态系统视角,运用向量自回归(VAR)模型构建产业创新能力与种群密度、种群丰富度之间的动态关系系统,着重探讨产业创新生态系统演化过程中种群构成对产业创新能力的影响规律。格兰杰因果关系分析表明,种群丰富度、种群密度是引起产业创新能力变动的格兰杰原因。脉冲响应与方差分解表明,种群密度与种群丰富度的正向冲击均会对产业创新能力产生积极的作用,种群密度对产业创新能力的影响较之种群丰富度要大一些;种群密度当期的正向变化会在未来对产业创新能力产生短期的促进作用,且促进作用的增长率会先迅速增大、之后逐渐降低并在第4年作用消失,而种群丰富度的当期正向变化会对产业创新能力产生长期的积极影响。据此提出构建合理的创新生态系统、完善种群结构等建议。

From the perspective of mid-view industrial innovation ecosystem, using vector autoregressive(VAR)model, this paper constructs a dynamic relationship system among industrial innovation capability, population density and population richness, focuses on the influence of population structure on innovation ability of the industry in the process of the evolution of industrial innovation ecosystem. Granger causality analysis shows that, population richness and population density are the Granger reasons for the change of industrial innovation ability. Impulse response and variance decomposition show that, the positive impact of population density and population richness will have a positive effect on industrial innovation ability, and the influence of population density on industrial innovation ability is greater than that of population richness. The positive change of population density in current period will have a short-term effect on industrial innovation ability in the future, and the growth rate of promoting effect will increase rapidly first, then gradually decrease and disappear in the fourth year, and the positive change of population richness in the current period will have a long-term positive impact on industrial innovation ability. Based on this, the paper puts forward some suggestions, such as constructing reasonable innovation ecosystem and perfecting population structure.