企业预见:概念解析与过程机理

Corporate Foresight:Conceptualization and Process Mechanism

企业预见作为一个新研究领域,仍存在理论基础薄弱、概念内涵与过程机理不清等问题。在总结企业预见概念内涵的基础上,将企业预见区分为吸引性预见和可行性预见双元结构,阐述开放性、持续性、系统性、有限理性4个预见特征。基于组织与情境协同适应视角建立情境建构、战略选择、协同反应三阶段预见过程模型以及涵盖8个步骤的基本流程,最后提出企业预见未来研究建议,以期推进企业预见概念内涵统一,为企业预见研究提供思路和线索,促进企业预见研究发展。

As a new field of research, the study on corporate foresight is now very fragmented. Apart from the unclear process mechanism and weak theoretical foundation, some divergences are also discovered in the connotation of the concept of corporate foresight. With the hope of improving the study of corporate foresight, this paper analyzes the structural ambidexterity, three characteristics and the mechanism of three-stage process,as well as an eight-step process basing on the conception of corporate foresight. In final, some suggestions with the hope of providing analytical framework and clues were presented for corporate foresight research, expecting more scholars to pay attention to this research field and promoting the development of this research.