基于气候因子的浙闽粤白纹伊蚊生境时空变迁研究

Temporal and Spatial Changes of Aedes albopictus Habitats in Zhejiang, Fujian and Guangdong Based on Climatic Factors

根据浙闽粤3省77个气象站1978—2017年逐日气温和相对湿度资料,采用Theil-Sen Median趋势分析、Mann-Kendall检验和GIS空间分析技术,研究白纹伊蚊生存范围的时空变化,探索未来气候条件下其生存空间的迁移趋势.结果表明:1978—2017年,白纹伊蚊生存的最佳湿度、最佳温度、适宜温度的年日数沿经向由南至北递减,适宜温度初始日沿经向由南至北递增;最佳湿度、最佳温度、适宜温度的年日数呈增多趋势,适宜温度初始日呈提前趋势;适宜温度年日数的增幅最大且趋势显著,最佳湿度年日数的增多及适宜温度起始日的提前趋势在浙江和福建较为显著,最佳温度年日数在广东和福建增多趋势较为显著;浙闽粤3省年平均气温已显著上升,20和25℃等温线正在向北移动,在未来气候情景下可能进一步北移.

Basing on the daily temperature and relative humidity data of 77 weather stations in Zhejiang,Fujian and Guangdong provinces from 1978 to 2017,the temporal and spatial variations of the living range for Aedes albopictus were studied,and the migration trend of its living space under future climatic conditions was explored with Theil-Sen Median trend analysis and Mann-Kendall test as well as GIS spatial analysis technology.The results showed during 1978—2017,the number of the days with optimum humidity,optimum temperature and suitable temperature for the survival of Aedes albopictus decreased from south to north,however,it had increasing trend.The number of the initial days with suitable temperature increased from south to north,and had advance trend.The increase of the number of the days with suitable temperature was the largest and the trend was significant,the increase of the days with optimum humidity and the advance trend of the initial days with suitable temperature were more significant in Zhejiang and Fujian.The number of the days with optimum temperature increased more significantly in Guangdong and Fujian provinces.The annual average temperature of the three provinces of Zhejiang,Fujian and Guangdong had risen remarkably,the 20℃ and 25℃ isotherms were moving north,and may move further northward in future climate scenarios.