基于偏离-份额分析法的山东省产业结构优化研究

Study on Industrial Structure Optimization of Shandong Province Based on Deviation Share Analysis Method

运用偏离-份额分析法,以全国同期产业结构值为参照,对2005—2014年山东省产业结构变化及经济增长进行分析。结果表明,山东省在近十年间,第一产业在产业增长份额和结构偏离份额方面相对劣势,对经济的贡献率最小;第二产业有较强的产业结构优势,对经济的贡献率大,但是竞争力相对于全国平均水平比较弱;第三产业增长速度较快,具有很强的竞争优势。根据分析结果,对山东省未来的产业结构优化和经济增长提出以下建议:一是转变农业发展方式,走农业现代化之路;二是积极培育新兴产业,提升区域竞争力;三是加快现代服务业发展,带动经济提质增效。

The changes of industrial structure and economic growth of Shandong Province in 2005-2014 were analyzed by using the method of deviation share and the value of industrial structure in the same period.The results show that in the past decade,the primary industry has the lowest contribution to the economy in terms of industrial growth share and structural deviation share.The secondary industry has a strong industrial structure advantage,and the contribution rate to the economy is large,but the competitiveness is weak compared with the national average level;The tertiary industry is growing rapidly and has a strong competitive advantage.According to the analysis results,the following suggestions are put forward for the optimization of industrial structure and economic growth in Shandong Province in the future:First,transform the mode of agricultural development and take the road of agricultural modernization;Secondly,actively cultivate emerging industries and promote regional competitiveness;The third is to accelerate the development of modern service industry and promote economic quality improvement and efficiency.