全球金融稳定展望：低利率长期化

GLOBAL FINANCIAL STABILITY OVERVIEW:LOWER FOR LONGER

全球金融市场一直受到贸易紧张局势起起伏伏和人们对全球经济前景日益担忧的冲击。2019年4月以来,由于对全球范围内更多货币宽松政策的预期,金融状况进一步缓和。利率大幅下跌进一步推动了投资者追逐收益的行为,并推升部分市场的资产价格。尽管宽松的金融环境有利于缓解近期全球经济下行风险,但也使得金融脆弱性进一步积累。在此背景下,全球经济增长和金融稳定的中期风险显著上升。政策制定者亟需采取行动,解决可能加剧下一次经济衰退的金融脆弱性问题。

Financial markets have been buffeted by the twists and turns of trade disputes amid growing investor concerns about downside risks to the economic outlook. Financial conditions have eased further since the previous Global Financial Stability Report(GFSR) but appear to be premised on expectations of additional monetary policy accommodation across the globe. Large declines in interest rates have created further incentives for investors to search for yield, leading to stretched valuations in some asset markets. Although accommodative conditions have helped contain near-term downside risks to global growth, they have also fueled a further buildup of financial vulnerabilities. Against this backdrop, medium-term risks to global growth and financial stability continue to be firmly skewed to the downside. Policymakers urgently need to take action to tackle financial vulnerabilities that could exacerbate the next economic downturn.