经济-社会-自然复合影响下的区域人才流动仿真与发展研究——以天津市为例

Research on the Simulation and Development of Regional Talent Flow under the Influence of Economic-social-natural Composite:Taking Tianjin as an Example

基于系统动力学构建区域人才流动的动力学模型,并以天津市为例,对其人才流动趋势进行定量化动态仿真与模拟。设定天津市5种人才流动的情形方案,一是通过设计三种人才政策优先级情形,得到经济、社会和自然三类影响因素对天津市人才流动的影响强度排序,即社会公共服务的影响强度最大,经济次之,自然环境最小;二是通过设计两种人才政策导向情形,预判天津市更适宜采用生态宜居环境导向型发展道路。研究结果可为天津市未来规划、发展提供决策支持,也证明该模型方法应用于其他地区具有可行性。

Based on the system dynamics, the dynamic model of regional talent flow is constructed. Taking Tianjin as an example, quantitative dynamic simulation and simulation of talent flow trends are carried out. The situation of five types of talent mobility in Tianjin was set. First, by designing the priority status of the three types of talent policies, the intensity of the impact of economic, social and natural factors on the flow of talents in Tianjin was ranked, that is, social public services. The intensity of impact is the largest, the economy is second, and the natural environment is the smallest. Second, by designing two kinds of talent policy-oriented situations, it is predicted that Tianjin is more suitable to adopt an ecologically livable environment-oriented development path. The research results can provide decision support for the future planning and development of Tianjin, and it also proves that the model method is feasible in other regions.