我国农业生产性服务业与农业经济增长的实证研究——基于VAR模型的计量分析

Empirical research on the interaction between agriculture and producer service industry: Econometric analysis based on VAR model

选取我国1999-2017年的样本数据,建构农业生产性服务业和农业产业经济增长的VAR模型,采用Johansen协整检验、Granger因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析等方法进行实证研究。研究结果表明,二者之间具有长期均衡关系,即我国农业生产性服务业与农业产业经济增长之间呈现双向互动、互为增长,最后给出进一步发展农业生产性服务业以促进农业经济增长的政策建议。

Based on the sample data of China from 1999 to 2017, this paper constructs the VAR model of agricultural producer service industry and agricultural economic growth, and makes an empirical study by means of cointegration test, granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the two, that is, the development of agricultural producer services in China is two-way interaction and mutual growth to agricultural economic growth. This provides a certain theoretical basis for the further development of agricultural producer services to promote agricultural economic growth.