金融改革、金融脆弱性与监管优化

Financial Reform Financial Vulnerability and Regulatory Optimization

金融改革是我国可持续发展的一项重要保证,但理论界和实务界关于其对金融稳定的作用效果意见还未达成一致,如何在推动金融改革过程中保证金融稳定成为一项迫切需要解决的课题。本文以此作为研究目标,测度了我国的金融自由化指数、金融脆弱性指数,衡量了金融监管对于金融脆弱性的影响,并通过构建了一个包含金融脆弱性、通货膨胀率、国内生产总值、金融自由化和外部冲击等五个变量的VAR模型,来评估金融改革对金融脆弱性的作用程度。研究结果表明,金融监管对于金融脆弱性具有抑制作用,金融改革对于金融脆弱性在短期内具有一定的阈值效应,其可能提升金融脆弱性,之后金融脆弱性有所下降,从长期来看金融改革对于金融脆弱性的作用并不明显。因此,在短期内,我国应针对金融改革优化监管措施,确保金融体系的稳定,在长期内,则可以享受金融改革对于金融发展的积极作用。

Financial reform is an important guarantee of sustainable development in China,but the theory and practice circles have not reached a consensus on its effect on financial stability.How to ensure financial stability in the process of financial reform is an urgent issue to be solved.Taking this as a research goal,this paper measures China’s financial liberalization index and financial vulnerability index,and measures the impact of financial regulation on financial vulnerability.The degree of financial reform’s impact on financial vulnerability was assessed by constructing a VAR model that included five variables:financial vulnerability,inflation,GDP,financial liberalization and external shocks.The research results show that financial regulation has an inhibitory effect on financial vulnerability.Financial reform has a certain threshold effect on financial vulnerability.It may increase financial vulnerability in the short term,and then financial vulnerability has declined.In the long run,the role of financial reform in financial vulnerability is not obvious.Therefore,in the short term,China should focus on financial reform,and optimize regulatory measures,in order to ensure the stability of the financial system.In the long term,we can enjoy the positive effect of financial reform.