人口老龄化与产业结构变动:文献综述及其启示

Population Aging and Industrial Structure Change: Literature Review and Its Enlightenment

在经济新常态下,人口老龄化的不断加剧与产业结构的转型升级是我国经济可持续发展面临的两大挑战。人口年龄结构作为最基本的人口结构,其不断老化过程是如何影响产业结构变动的?这一问题引起了学者的关注,并且也取得了丰硕的研究成果。在阐述人口老龄化和产业结构内涵的基础上,尝试梳理了人口老龄化对产业结构影响的一些研究成果。这些研究成果主要涉及人口老龄化与产业结构变动的统计规律、理论分析、实证检验三个方面。从人口变化与产业结构的统计关系看,人口产业结构的变化是按照一定规律呈现的,这种规律对把握人口老龄化与产业结构变动的指导意义十分明显。从人口老龄化与产业结构变动之间的理论关系看,人口老龄化会通过供给和需求两个路径影响产业结构的变化,具体会从劳动力供给、劳动生产率、人力资本、消费需求、投资需求等五个方面影响产业结构变动。从人口老龄化与产业结构变动实证检验的结果看,由于研究方法、研究对象的差异,人口老龄化对产业结构变动的影响结论不明确,存在一定差异。在此基础上,指出了人口老龄化与产业结构变动之间关系的未来研究方向。

Under the new normal of economy,the increasing aging of population and the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure are the two major challenges facing China's sustainable economic development.As the most basic population structure,how does the aging process affect the changes of industrial structure?This problem has attracted the attention of scholars,and has also achieved fruitful research results.On the basis of expounding the connotation of population aging and industrial structure,this paper attempts to sort out some research results on the impact of population aging on industrial structure.These research results mainly involve the statistical laws,theoretical analysis and empirical tests of population aging and industrial structure changes.Judging from the statistical relationship between population change and industrial structure,the change of population industrial structure is presented according to a certain rule,which has obvious guiding significance to grasp the aging of population and the change of industrial structure.From the theoretical relationship between population aging and changes in industrial structure,population aging will affect changes in industrial structure through two paths of supply and demand,specifically affecting changes in industrial structure from five aspects of labor supply,labor productivity,human capital,consumption demand and investment demand.From the results of the empirical test of population aging and industrial structure changes,due to the differences in research methods and research objects,the conclusion of the impact of population aging on industrial structure changes is not clear,and there are certain differences.On this basis,the future research direction of the relationship between population aging and changes in industrial structure is pointed out.