基于改进GM(1,1)模型的中国脱贫攻坚进展分析

A progress analysis of Chinese poverty alleviation based on improved GM(1,1)

为了验证2020年中国实现现行标准下全部脱贫的可行性.本文首先建立脱贫攻坚理论模型,分析政策性扶贫的外生性影响.而后依据脱贫规律对GM(1,1)模型进行改进,构建脱贫进展预测模型,利用2012-2016年宏观数据对我国整体范围及各贫困地区的脱贫进展情况进行了分析.结果表明:无论以全国还是各贫困地区为研究对象,在2016年扶贫强度下均无法实现2020年全面脱贫的目标;当全国扶贫投入提升至2016年的1.4656~1.6840倍时,2020年全面脱贫的目标可以实现;河北、海南、云南和新疆目前主要以政策性脱贫为主,在政策帮扶之外具有明显的返贫趋势.

In order to verify the feasibility of China’s total poverty alleviation in 2020.Firstly,this paper establishes a theoretical model of poverty alleviation and analyzes the exogenous influence in the model.Then,the GM(1,1)is improved according to the rule of poverty alleviation,and a prediction model for poverty alleviation is constructed.And then,the macro data from 2012 to 2016 are used to analyze the progress of poverty alleviation,the results showed that:1)Regardless of the poverty areas or the whole country as the research object,the goal of poverty alleviation by 2020 cannot be achieved under the intensity of poverty alleviation in 2016:2)When the national poverty alleviation input increases to 1.4656~1.6840 times in 2016,the goal of total poverty alleviation by 2020 will be achieved;3)Hebei.Hainan,Yunnan and Xinjiang mainly focus on policy-oriented poverty alleviation at present,and these areas have an obvious trend of returning to poverty outside the policy support.