系统自组织演化流率基本人树模型的构建和应用——基于规模养殖生态能源系统的反馈仿真

Construction and application for self organizing evolution of system dynamics of based in-tree model——Based on the feedback simulation of scale breeding ecological energy system

生猪规模养殖生态能源系统是实现企业、农户、政府共赢的沼气综合利用系统.针对该复杂系统存在的农户退出系统意愿增强、企业为农户进行沼气原料供应意愿降低、政府对沼气工程后续维护重视程度低等有序性减弱现象,课题紧扣系统结构复杂性和系统有序性演化,结合问题多学科交叉的特点,利用研究系统结构复杂性的系统动力学方法和研究系统有序性演化的自组织理论,在分别进行系统反馈分析和系统自组织演化机理分析的基础上,抓住自组织动态演化系统和系统动力学流位流率系的动态复制这一共同特性,开展由自组织动态演化系统构建系统自组织演化流率基本入树模型的理论集成研究,实现对具有系统结构复杂性和系统有序性演化问题的综合研究,得出:任意的自组织演化动态复制系统均能建立以流率变量为根,以流位变量为尾,且流位变量和外生变量直接控制流率变量的流率基本入树模型,即系统自组织演化流率基本入树模型.并利用该模型对江西德安生猪规模养殖生态能源系统进行反馈调控仿真研究,得出:提升生猪规模养殖生态能源系统主体变化率、系统发展阈值、系统内部的合作效应有利于促进系统向有序转化.

The scale of farming ecological system is to achieve energy hog farmers,enterprises,system of comprehensive utilization of biogas.In view of the existing government win the complicated system of farmers out of the system will increase,enterprises for farmers to reduce the supply of raw materials of biogas will,the government of the biogas project follow-up maintenance low emphasis orderly weakened,orderly evolution subject fastening system complexity and with the system,features of multi discipline problems,self organization theory of orderly evolution by means of system dynamics research and system complexity of system structure,in different system feedback based analysis and system analysis of selforganization evolution mechanism,since the group seized.Fabric dynamic evolution system and system dynamics flow and flow rate of dynamic replication of a common characteristic,carried out by the research on the theory of integrated system self-organization evolution rate variable fundamental in tree model of self-organization evolution system,realize the draw on the comprehensive research,with system structure complexity and system evolution problems orderly:The self-organization evolution of dynamic replication any system could be built to rate variable as the root,to a variable flow rate and flow for the tail,and exogenous variables directly control the flow rate variable basic model,namely the system self-organization evolution rate variable fundamental in tree model.And the model of Jiangxi Dean scale pig farming ecological energy system.The simulation research of feedback regulation shows that improving the main body change rate,the system development threshold and the cooperative effect within the system are helpful to promote the orderly transformation of the ecological energy system in pig scale.